📉 ASEAN-5 Financial Flows: A Shift Toward Net Outflows

(Source) IMF International Financial Statistics, Central bank reports and online databases from Bank of Thailand, Bank Negara Malaysia, Bank Indonesia, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, and State Bank of Vietnam

This chart illustrates net financial flows for ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) between 2016 and 2024, focusing on two components:

• Capital & Financial Account

• Portfolio Investment

Key Points :

• Sharp deterioration since 2022: Net capital inflows are weakening across ASEAN-5, with 2024 projected to record net outflows for the first time in this period.

• Portfolio investment volatility: Foreign portfolio flows (e.g., equities, bonds) have been consistently negative since 2020, indicating persistent investor caution.

• COVID shock in 2020: Both accounts plunged deeply, but capital inflows rebounded in 2021—only to reverse again by 2023.

  
  

Implication :

These trends reflect growing external uncertainty and domestic constraints. Weak portfolio sentiment paired with shrinking capital inflows could strain ASEAN's funding base, especially for current account deficit countries.